EcoEpi modelling to solve disease problems in wild boar
African Swine Fever (ASF), Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Foot-and-Mouth disease (FMD)

Online Respository

• AFRICAN SWINE FEVER

  Data-driven modelling of ASF transmission in wild boar

  • African swine fever virus – variants on the rise
    Forth J., Calvelage S., ..., Blome S., preprint. bioRxiv doi:10.1101/2022.09.07.506908
    Supplement: Video Illustration & ODD Model documentation
  • Elucidating transmission parameters of African swine fever through wild boar carcasses by combining spatio-temporal notification data and agent-based modelling
    Lange M., Thulke H.-H., 2017. SERR 31: 379-391 doi:10.1007/s00477-016-1358-8
    Supplement: ODD Model documentation
  • Analysis of spatio-temporal patterns of African swine fever cases in Russian wild boar does not reveal an endemic situation
    Lange M., Siemen H., Blome S., Thulke H.-H., 2014. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 117: 317-325. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.08.012
    
  • Digging into the myth – African Swine Fever, Russian wild boar and the endemicity hypothesis
    Thulke H.-H., Lange M., Siemen H., Blome S. 2014. In: Mintiens K. and Parkin T.D.H. (Eds.): Proceedings SVEPM Dublin, 86-95.
    

  Assessing EU control measures against ASF in wild boar

  • Modelling the effectiveness of measures applied in zones dedicated to stop the spread of African Swine Fever in wild boar when bordering with a region of limited control
    Reichold A., Lange M., Thulke H.-H. 2022. EFSA Supporting Publication 19: EN-7320. doi:10.2903/sp.efsa.2022.EN-7320 Open text
    Documentation of SwiFCo-rs - online
    (see related EFSA et al. (2022) Epidemiological analyses of African swine fever in the European Union (September 2020 to August 2021) - Epi 6 report )
  • Modelling wild boar management for controlling the spread of ASF in the areas called white zones (zones blanche)
    Lange M., Reichold A., Thulke H.-H. 2021. EFSA Supporting Publication, EN-6573, 40 pp. doi:10.2903/sp.efsa.2021.EN-6429 Open text
    (see related EFSA et al. (2021) Epidemiological analysis of African swine fever in the European Union (September 2019 to August 2020) - Epi 5 report )
    
    Supplement: Video Illustration & ODD Model documentation
    

    Estonia:	Latvia:	Czech Rep:	France:

    
    
  • Modelling advanced knowledge of African swine fever, resulting surveillance patterns at the population level and impact on reliable exit strategy definition
    Lange M., Reichold A., Thulke H.-H. 2021. EFSA Supporting Publication, EN-6429, 60 pp. doi:10.2903/sp.efsa.2021.EN-6429 Open text incl. ODD Model documentation
    (see related EFSA et al. (2020) Scientific Opinion on ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures )
  • Understanding ASF spread and emergency control concepts in wild boar populations using individual-based modelling and spatio-temporal surveillance data
    Lange M., Gubert V., Thulke H.-H., 2018. EFSA Supporting Publication, EN-1521, 46 pp. doi:10.2903/sp.efsa.2018.EN-1521 Open text incl. ODD Model documentation
    (see related EFSA et al. (2018) Epidemiological analyses of African swine fever in the European Union (November 2017 until November 2018) )
  • Simulation-based investigation of ASF spread and control in wildlife without consideration of human non-compliance to biosecurity
    Thulke H.-H., Lange M., 2017. EFSA Supporting Publication, 12(7):EN-843, 30 pp. doi: 10.2903/sp.efsa.2017.EN-1312 Open text incl. ODD Model documentation
    (see related EFSA et al. (2017) Epidemiological analyses of African swine fever in the Baltic States and Poland (Update September 2016–September 2017) )
  • Alternative control strategies against ASF in wild boar populations
    Lange M, 2015. EFSA Supporting Publication, 12(7):EN-1312, 29 pp. doi:10.2903/sp.efsa.2015.EN-843 Open text incl. ODD Model documentation
    (see related EFSA et al. (2015) African swine fever )
  • Mobile barriers as emergency measure to control outbreaks of African Swine Fever in wild boar
    Lange M., Thulke H.-H., 2015. In: Thulke, H.-H., Verheyen, K. (Eds.): Proceedings SVEPM Gent 2015, 122-132.
    Supplement: ODD Model documentation,



• CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER

  Changes in severity of Classical Swine Fever Virus infection in wild boar during the time a population is infected

  • Disease severity declines over time after a wild boar population has been affected by Classical Swine Fever - legend or actual epidemiological process?
    Lange M., Kramer-Schadt S., Thulke H.-H., 2012. Preventive Verterinary Medicine, 106, 185-195. doi:j.prevetmed.2012.01.024
    Full text, Supplement 1: Model documentation, Supplement 2: Accessory investigations
  • Does severity of Classical Swine Fever Virus infection decline with time a wild boar population is infected?
    Lange M., Kramer-Schadt S., Thulke H.-H., 2011. In: Fourichon, C., Pfeiffer, D.U. (Eds.): Proceedings SVEPM Leipzig 2011, 154-167.
    Full text, Model documentation

  Mechanisms facilitating persistence of CSF in wild boar populations

  • Individual variations in infectiousness explain long-term disease persistence in wildlife populations.
    Kramer-Schadt, S., Fernández, N., Eisinger, D., Grimm, V., Thulke, H.-H., 2009. Oikos 118, 199-208.
    Full text Supplement: Model documentation

  Efficacy of spatial-temporal designs of oral mass vaccination

  • Efficiency of spatio-temporal vaccination regimes in wildlife populations under different viral constraints.
    Lange M., Kramer-Schadt S., Thulke H.-H., 2012. Veterinary Research 43:37.
    Full text: doi:10.1186/1297-9716-43-37 (open access)



• FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE

  Foot-and-Mouth disease in Bulgarian Thrace

  • Spatial spread and maintenance of foot-and-mouth disease virus infections in wildlife populations of Thrace region applying epidemiological modelling.
    Lange M., 2012. EFSA Supporting Publication, 9(4):EN-264, 28 pp. Full text including ODD model documentation

EcoEpi :: Research on Infectious diseases in Wild boar