EcoEpi - African swine fever virus variants on the rise at the Polish-German border

Supplemental material SwiFCoIBM-rs - Model Documentation and videos of simulation output

bioRxiv: African swine fever virus – variants on the rise. Forth et al.

Video of example model runs

Model Documentation, Back

Simulation of ASF spread in a geographic wild boar population (individual-based) with stochastic emergence of virus variants (colour scheme). Time stamp in weeks. Infection seeded at T=266. Pixels represent core home-range of wild boar families formed by individual female relatives.

Left: Area of concern left from Polish border
Left-down: Current epidemic status - blue: healthy; red: infected/infectious; green: survived animals (brightness expresses numbers)
Below: First variant type (colour) affecting the family group. New variants form spatial clusters while spreading into the teritorry.

Online model documentation following the ODD protocol

Example model runs, Back

Overview

The ASF wild boar model is a compilation of a spatially explicit, stochastic, individual-based demographic model for wild boars (Sus scrofa) in a structured landscape of habitat area. Superimposed is a transmission and disease course model for the ASFV.

Purpose

The purpose of model is to investigate various diagnostic profiles over time in an ASFV affected wild boar population. The model was originally aimed at an assessment of ASF spread in Estonian wild boar populations and the evaluation of reporting data from field surveys. Transmission of ASF infection is operated by direct contacts within groups of socialising wild boar hosts and with carcasses deposited in the habitat landscape.